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Everything posted by allardjd

  1. Appears to be ugly WX and ugly terrain, and an airline not permitted to operate in the EU, running old equipment. What could possibly go wrong? Agree Alan - RIP to the victims and peace to the families. What a tragedy. John
  2. I can't say much for the guy's judgment and he proves it when he walks in, goes straight past the sweets and buys a sandwich. John
  3. If you assume that it's not just forgetfulness, inattention, etc, the next most plausible thing, given it's Russia is Vitamin V. John
  4. Maybe the CVR tapes will contain a clue why they were not turned on. It wouldn't be the first time someone acknowledged a checklist item without actually performing the action, or confirmed an item as being in accordance with the checklist when it wasn't. I think the Palm Air crash in the river at Washington DC many years ago was one example of exactly that - not pitots but cowl de-icing that affected engine EPR indications. John
  5. Bluegrass Airlines is about to kick off their Great Australian Air Rally 2018. Registration and test flights appear to already be open and the window for the first leg is 16-FEB to 19-FEB. Time is short. Don't delay getting in on this great event. http://bluegrassairlines.com/operations/gar_gp/2018/index.html A bundle of airport diagrams for the 12 GAAR 2018 airports has been created and is available in the Events section of the Airport Diagrams Download Center here at MH. John
  6. = = = = = = = = = = GAAR 2018 Airports.zip = = = = = = = = = = = Click to download GAAR 2108 Airports.zip - Link to OneDrive folder for Events Bluegrass Airlines Great Australian Air Rally 2018 - Airport Diagrams Created 2/14/18 This zip file will not be updated unless changes are made to the official route by the event staff. 13 Airports, 13 files NOTES: These diagrams are also contained in their respective country/state bundles, as appropriate. The list below is in ICAO code order, not the route sequence. This zip contains airport diagrams for... - YBHM Hamilton I. - Hamilton I, Queensland - Australia - YBNA Ballina - Ballina, New South Wales - Australia - YBPN Whitsunday Coast - Proserpine, Queensland - Australia - YDYS Dysart - Dysart, Queensland - Australia - YFLI Flinders I - Flinders I, Tasmania - Australia - YIFL Innisfail - Innisfail, Queensland - Australia - YKRY Kingaroy - Kingaroy, Queensland - Australia - YMDG Mudgee - Mudgee, New South Wales - Australia - YMGI Mungindi - Mungindi, New South Wales - Australia - YMHB Hobart - Hobart, Tasmania - Australia - YNAR Narrandera - Narrandera, New South Wales - Australia - YORB Orbost - Orbost, Victoria - Australia - YTNG Thangool - Thangool, Queensland - Australia
  7. Oh boy - the FDR contained data for the previous 16 flights, including the accident flight. On the previous 15 flights all 3 pitot heaters were recorded as ON. For this flight they were all OFF! Yikes!!! It doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure this one out. John
  8. It fits the scenario, including the WX and the fact that the AC was not de-iced before flight. Being in clouds with the airspeed indicator toes-up is not a good place to be - worse yet if you don't know it's giving you bad information. Pilots are trained and have hours and hours of responding to what's being displayed on the panel and ignoring an airspeed indicator that's giving bad information is a lot harder than it sounds. Many pilots carry rubber suction cups in their flight bags designed to cover inoperative panel gauges for just that reason. If it's one of the six-pack, seeing but not responding to one that you know is broken is half-past difficult even if you know it's bad. Eye-hand muscle memory has to be consciously overcome and it's not easy. It's a bit easer to manage flying the aircraft if the bum gauge is covered up, but first you have to figure out that it's bad. If the airspeed was indicating low it's not too hard to believe that they did the instinctive thing, pushed up the power and pushed the nose over. You would too, right up to the moment you figured out that the airspeed indicator was bum-doping you, and even then it would be hard to ignore an AIS that says you're five knots from the stall and decreasing. I'm inclined to take this one at face value. John
  9. Well, that was quick! https://www.rt.com/news/418664-russia-plane-crash-cause/ "The crash of An-148 passenger plane in the Moscow Region may have been caused by incorrect flight speed data due to icing, the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) said after deciphering the flight data recorder. On Tuesday, the IAC announced it had completed the deciphering of information contained in the one of the black boxes – the on-board data flight recorder – of the crashed plane. It is still working on the other black box, the voice recorder. The preliminary analysis suggests that the “incorrect data about flight speed on the pilots' indicators, which in turn was linked to the icing of the pitot-static [sensor] system” led to a “special situation” with the plane, according to the IAC statement." I'd missed a couple of pages of new comments when I said above that they'd gone quiet at PPRUNE. John
  10. They've gone pretty quiet at PPRUNE on this one, but one guy has published an analysis of ADS-B data from what FR24 (Flight Radar 24?) published. It's pretty unremarkable except it shows a fair amount of blundering around trying to level at 6,000'. He's used lat-long data points to extrapolate ground speed, which is kind of imprecise, and tells little about airspeed, particularly if altitude changes are also going on. He notes there are a lot of missed data points and bad data included, which he's either filtered out or interpolated around. There's an image of the flight track over the ground, apparently based on the above or something like it. The path is smooth right up to the point of impact; a slight right dogleg right after takeoff, possibly indicating a cross-wind from the left, but still essentially flying the runway heading, a straight leg, a smooth turn to the left and straight on to the point of impact. The last straight leg to impact is pretty long compared to the rest - it's the bulk of the flight path. So, some altitude excursions of several hundred feet around 6,000' but ground track doesn't show any unusual anomalies. Haven't seen it compared to the flight plan/ATC instructions but there's nothing obvious that indicates any kind of heading excursions. Heading doesn't depend on pitots - airspeed does. Altitude is generally affected because pilots would probably use pitch changes as well as power to chase erroneous airspeed and/or altitude instrument readings until they figure out which widgets are lying to them. If the static port(s) is affected, your best chance at maintaining level flight if you don't have a horizon is pitch and power, ignoring airspeed and altitude indications. John
  11. President Trump is walking out of the White House and heading toward his limo, when a possible assassin steps forward and aims a gun. A secret service agent, new on the job, shouts “Mickey Mouse!” This startles the would be assassin and he is captured. Later, the secret service agent’s supervisor takes him aside and asks, “What in the hell made you shout Mickey Mouse?” Blushing, the agent replies, “I got nervous. I meant to shout, “Donald, duck!” John
  12. I generally give these things a week or so to see what develops and to let the mad rush on their servers diminish a little. A wise old pilot once said, "Never fly the A model of anything." I think that might apply here too - let others beat the brush for a while and see what comes out. Windows 8/8.1 serves as a great example. John
  13. I doubt it was airframe ice, at least any ground accumulation. He made it to 6,000' and was in level flight there. I'm leaning toward the idea of pitot ice, which may have begun on the ground, but once he was in IMC its effect on his flight instruments became critical. John
  14. There's video of the impact fireball from quite a long distance but no indication of any smoke or flame prior to the initial fireball on that. Can't rule it out definitively but no mention of it on PPRUNE. They are indicating also that there is no evidence of any kind of in-flight break-up, reinforced by the shape of the debris field and given the flight path, they don't consider it likely any tail-feathers came off before impact. Occam says loss of control in clouds, consistent with bad airspeed and V-V data, but still speculative, of course. John
  15. Why Aren't Helicopters Faster? https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a16842869/fastest-car-fastest-helicopter/ Interesting but incomplete article. It's worth reading and is mercifully short. I don't think it tells the whole story, though the kernel of the issue is there. The article fails to mention a couple of cutting edge prototypes that incorporate a pusher propeller to impart additional forward thrust. Those show promise for future production machines that will be able to break the rotary wing speed barrier. John
  16. Free upgrade to owners of 4.1? John
  17. Here's what appears to be factual so far... Captain decided not to de-ice before departure. Normal departure and climbout to about 6,000', into IMC WX. Fairly rapid descent a short time later, reportedly just after having been cleared to a higher altitude. High speed impact at a shallow angle, almost flat, with relatively flat, heavily snow-covered terrain causing huge fireball and scattering the wreckage in a large "fan" area. Aircraft essentially disintegrated. Recorders have been found. Photos of them show impact damage, fairly heavy, but no fire damage and no reason to think they will not be readable. Impact was much like the Hawker Hunter crash in the UK some time ago, pretty flat, at a high speed and probably trying to pull up. No information about any communications from the aircrew indicating problems so far. Now the speculation... The most credible speculation of cause I've read so far is iced pitot(s) resulting in a pitch and airspeed excursion; broke out of clouds too low to recover - but it's just that - speculation. Nobody knows much of anything yet. There's an unconfirmed report that several high-ranking members of Rosatom (a Russian atomic energy company) were aboard and also one person who was a "source" in the Trump dossier affair, fueling speculation that they were "eliminated" to prevent them being called as witnesses if the US Uranium One scandal and other issues involving the Clintons were ever to get investigated. I'm not putting much stock in this part of the story yet. In any disaster, some crazy conspiracy theories always seem to emerge on the fringes. John
  18. There's more to the hamster story. Apparently the rodent-lady called the airline multiple times to confirm she could fly with the little rat (they're all rats) and was told, "no problem", before going to the airport. She was returning home to have some surgery for what is alleged to be a painful medical issue, or so the story goes. All possible, I guess but I really raise my eyebrows at an "emotional support hamster". Sorry - if you're so bad off that you need a rodent to assure your mental comfort and perhaps to avoid panic attacks, you have no business even being out on the streets without something much more intelligent than a hamster (another human, perhaps) to see to your well-being. There's no way you should be flying on a commercial aircraft. I'll acknowledge that some people certainly need service animals and maybe even some need them for emotional support/comfort/well-being. OK - fair enough - but if they're going to be introduced into a crowded place with no escape for several hours (e.g. an airliner pax cabin) they should be restricted to species that are intelligent enough to be trainable, tractable enough to not be liable to exhibit dangerous, unsanitary or annoying behavior, or at least be small enough to be easily restrained or confined if that becomes desirable. Credentials certifying that the animal is trained and the patient/person requires it should be mandatory. Failing that, it's just a pet (or livestock) and needs to be transported as such. Peacocks, with or without credentials, don't make the cut in my opinion. Put Plumey in a cage in the baggage compartment with the rest of the freight and get over it. I'm a little sympathetic to the hamster lady for the loss of her pet but I suspect it was just that, a pet, not a bona fide service animal. Like many others these days, it seems likely to me that she was just gaming the system to avoid the cost and hassle of shipping him/her/it/whatever as freight, as people had to do in the past before the current menagerie of "emotional support [insert creature name here]" became all the rage. I also can't really blame people for being tempted to strike back at the airlines wherever and whenever they can, but in doing so, folks should have the decency to consider the impact on other pax too. The hamster probably would have been pretty innocuous during a flight, but the peacock almost certainly would have been the life of the party and not in a good way. John
  19. That's a bad one. RIP the victims and hopefully some peace for their families. Seems unlikely to have been WX on a departure, though it can't be complexly ruled out. Extreme icing might be a possible cause but most airliner types can and sometimes do climb through icing levels quickly enough to avoid serious problems. Bird strike(s) maybe or some kind of failure - or the ever-possible "human-caused" issues. Should be an interesting investigation. John
  20. ...and they've agreed to - - - something. A400M customer country taxpayers, keep your hands over your wallets. This thing is about to get even more expensive and the procurement more protracted. This is a textbook case of how not to do military aircraft development contracts, for both aircraft designers and for governments. All modern military aircraft development tends to be difficult, protracted and expensive, but this one plows new ground. Hard to see any winners in this. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/a400m-customers-move-towards-fresh-contract-revision-445730/ John
  21. Thanks, Boss. I'm gonn'a make 'em anyway - might as well make them for something people will actually need them for. John
  22. = = = = = = = = = = MH ATWC VII - Sector 3.zip = = = = = = = = = = = Mutleys Hangar Around the World Challenge Seven (ATWC VII) - Link to OneDrive folder for MH ATWC VII - Sector 3 Mutley's Hangar Around The World Challenge VII - Sector 3 Airport Diagrams Created 2/8/18 This zip file will not be updated unless changes are made to the official route by the event staff. 12 Airports, 14 files NOTES: These diagrams are also contained in their respective country/state/province bundles, as appropriate. The list below is in ICAO code order, not the route sequence. This zip contains airport diagrams for... - MMCT Chichen-Itza - Chichen-Itza, Mexico - MMPN Lic And Gen Ignacio Lopez Rayo - Uruapan, Mexico - MPFS Sherman - Sherman, Panama - MPMG Marcos A Gelabert Intl - Panama City, Panama - SBRJ Santos Dumont - Rio De Janeiro, Brazil (2 plates) - SCAT Desierto De Atacama - Copiapo, Chile - SEGU Simon Bolivar Intl - Guayaquil, Ecuador - SGIB Itaipu Intl - Hernandarias, Paraguay - SKBO Eldorado Intl - Bogota, Colombia (2 plates) - SLSU Juana Azurduy De Padilla - Sucre, Bolivia - SPSO Pisco - Pisco, Peru - SPZO Tnte Fap Alejandro Velazco Ast - Cuzco, Peru
  23. Try switching to a Piranha, or maybe a Spectacled Cobra, or maybe even a Komodo Dragon (assuming you can't get a real dragon). Of course they've sucked all the fun out of flying commercial these days anyway - why should you have any emotional support that might lessen the effect of that? John
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