@John

[MartinW 0]

What’s the latest on hurricane Dean, I heard the other day that Florida was in its path.

Has the danger passed for you guys or are you still in a heightened state of alert?

[allardjd 1,853]

We're going to be fine here, Martin. Thanks for asking.

I do recommend that you quickly sell all of your ocean-front property in Jamaica, however. Yesterday they were saying that this could be the worst storm there in 100 years. This morning it's turned a little south and may pass just far enough away to spare them the worst. It will still be bad though.

The Caymans will get a glancing blow and the Yucatan is going to take it head on again. We were in Cozumel last December and they were still recovering from the last one to hit there, but the new construction was being done with storms in mind, so at least the tourism infrastructure might be OK this time. The populace will suffer, as always.

After the Yucatan, it is expected to go into the Mexican mainland south of Texas. Texas may get a lot of rain they do not need, but other than that the US is not expected to be affected.

Interestingly, NASA cut the shuttle mission a day short out of fear that mission control Houston might be affected by Dean, though that never looked likely and now looks impossible. Can't fault conservative thinking where the shuttle is concerned though. We've seen what happens when they don't expect the worst.

As you might imagine, the TV news here, both local and national, has very good hurricane coverage and we've become interested viewers during the season.

John

[mutley 4,498]

Phew that's goods news for Florida then John, no need to start clearing the garden of fixtures and fittings.

[MartinW 0]

I do recommend that you quickly sell all of your ocean-front property in Jamaica,

:roll: I fear it may be too late, too many properties to sell, so many hotels and so little time. :wink:

I just caught BBC News 24 after I posted John the main Item concerned Jamaica.

There are still flights from the UK destined for Jamaica surprisingly.

I guess this is something you have grown very accustomed to, it must be a frightening experience.

Do you seal yourself in a basement during such times or are there safe locations for residents?

We are very lucky in the UK, surprisingly we do get tornado's, quite frequently actually [but very minor] and occasionally the odd earth tremor. Flooding of course is the problem for us these days.

[allardjd 1,853]

Mut & Martin,

Thanks for the concern, guys. Nothing needed here this time.

Basements are not an option here in Florida. I don't know why, but they just don't build them here. They were a fixture in Michigan.

Preps are of two kinds; seasonal and immediate. We have the seasonal stuff done, and usually have a five day window to do the immediate ones. The forecasting is quite good; you'd have to be on the moon to not realize there's one of these coming your way.

Gasoline is a priority. I keep almost 30 gallons in cans, treated for long-term storage with a product called Stabil. We also keep the vehicles at or above a half tank during the season. This supports the stay or flee decision. If we go, we take the cans too. If we stay, the gasoline supports the generator (5500 watts) if we need it. We were out of power 85 hours in one storm in 2004, but other people were out much longer. With the generator, I can run anything except the air conditioning and the hot water heater.

The gas stations soon run out of gas when there is a storm nearby, so early action is necessary on that score. Most of Florida's gas comes in through the port of Tampa. When a storm threatens, incoming tankers go elsewhere and the tanks can't be drawn down below a certain level lest they be flattened in the storm, so gas supplies become critical very early on. A new plan is needed, but that's what they do for now.

The storm itself is not too much of a concern for us except that we have about 200 trees on the property and one could come down on the house, I suppose. (We lost about 6 or 8 during the 2004 season, but none since - no damage from them) The house is stucco-covered cement block, but has a wood frame roof. It's sturdy, so we don't worry too much. We're 70 ft. above sea level and also on local high ground, so flooding isn't an issue.

Being 30 miles from the Gulf and 80 from the Atlantic, we would be very unlikely to be hit with anything much over 80 mph. Our stay/flee plan, concocted when there was no threat in an effort to be objective, is that we go if there is a CAT 4 or CAT 5 expected to make landfall north of Tampa on the Gulf side. For anything else, we stay.

Tornadoes are an issue in the aftermath of hurricanes too, but the hurricane is 500 miles wide, the tornado is 500 feet wide. If you get hit by one of them you're just very unlucky.

John

[MartinW 0]

Thanks John, it's very interesting to find out what it's like from your perspective, all this is very alien to us Brits. With the amount of complaining we do about the weather it puts it into perspective for us.

I mentioned our floods; they seem to be far more common these days. [Won’t mention global warming] A friend recently found himself driving through a flooded stretch of road, all of the motorists that preceded him managed to negotiate the flooded section with ease. However, when my friend attempted the same task, he encountered a bus approaching rapidly in the opposite direction. The maniac driver was travelling far too fast for the conditions; consequently a huge wave engulfed my friend’s car causing his engine to cut out. Try as he might he couldn't start the car. Much to the amusement of passing motorists, he had to wade knee deep through the water to fetch help; the police subsequently arrived and towed him out.

The bad news is that his car is a right off; I presume the electrics, [engine management system etc] were beyond repair.

I have also heard stories of four-wheel drive owners charging motorists £100 to tow them out of flooded sections of road.

I would imagine things are different in Florida, with the threat of hurricanes tornados [and no doubt alligators in your pool] I would expect local residents to be far more helpfull

[allardjd 1,853]

I've learned since becoming a Floridian that fresh water flooding is the leading cause of hurricane related deaths. Floods, regardless of the cause, are very dangerous and people underestimate the power of even a relatively small amount of flowing water. England had an opportunity this year to see all of that too. I'm sure many people are still not back to normal from the effects of that. It can be devastating. Hurricanes can deliver inches of rain per hour, so flooding is inextricably tied up with them. We're fortunate not to have to worry too much about that becase of an accident of geography.

Most pools here, ours included, are covered by what is locally referred to as a "lanai". It is an aluminum frame structure covered in screening, usually attached to and partially supported by the parent structure. They're de rigour here, but are not seen much further north as they are utterly incapable of supporting any snow load.

The primary benefit is to keep bugs and other critters out of the pool and patio area and they are quite effective. In the storms of 2004, the worst since we've lived here, one corner of one screen section came loose and had to be re-attached. They generally stand up to the winds quite well since they are aerodynamically translucent (my term). None the less, we were dutifully informed by the insurance company this spring that our homeowners policy has been amended and no longer covers lanai structures, unless we would agree pay an additional premium. I don't recall how much, but we declined.

The story about your friends flooded car is interesting. There are limits to everything, but modern automobiles are much more tolerant of water than in the days prior to electronic ignition systems. I don't know if you're old enough to have experienced breaker points and condensers, but today's ignition systems are orders of magnitude more robust. They provide much better performance, require far less maintenance and have a much improved resistance to water splashing around under the hood (bonnet?). When I was a new driver, just splashing through a moderately deep puddle too fast could ground out the ignition system. Remedying it usually required removing the distributor cap and blowing everything out with air or spraying and electrical contact cleaner to displace the water - all well and good if the rain had stopped, but problematic if it was still coming down.

EDIT - Almost forgot... Many peope help others out, but there is the inevitable bad behavior too. The State of Florida has some new, very strict anti-gouging laws that prohibit inflated prices before or following emergencies. There's some sort of unambiguous formula that has to be met; it's something like no more than 10% greater than the average price over the previous 90 days in the same establishment. It's been severely enforced against a local motel, who was charging more than quadruple the normal room rate when people were evacuating from further south. When there's a storm nearby, the television stations routinely put up a toll-free hot-line number to the State Attorney General's office to report gouging. It's happened in the past with gasoline, plywood, bottled water, portable generators and chain saws that I know of, and probably all sorts of other things.

[ddavid 149]

Hi John! Seems that my Pam is up to speed on the Dean front! When she looks at the UK weather forecast for our area in the morning (she likes to know what is in store for our holiday makers, here) she invariably follows the hyperlinks to foreign weather hot-spots. Normally, she tells me about flooding in Bangladesh (50% surface area under water) , snow in Santiago (didn't see any in your screen shot Joe!) or the most recent earthquake in Peru. It's an exciting breakfast in our house........

Maybe you can tell me - is there any real evidence that the weather with you is changing in respect of global warming? Ignoring the possibility of cycles in the weather, which haven't really been documented before, can you ascribe more hurricanes to our increasing green-house gas emissions?

We have a saying here in the UK - The weather is here and I wish you were beautiful. The younger Hangarians probably have never heard it, but it was often to be found written on post-cards (mainly soggy ones!) written from wind-swept promenades during rather wet holidays by the sea. What's a post-card?, I hear them mutter, Dai's off on one, again!!

Anyway, take care, mate - and watch that barometer......

Cheers - Dai/David. :mrhappy:

[MartinW 0]

but modern automobiles are much more tolerant of water than in the days prior to electronic ignition systems. I don't know if you're old enough to have experienced breaker points and condensers, but today's ignition systems are orders of magnitude more robust.

Yes my thoughts exactly John, I was very surprised when my wife told me his car was a right off. I have known flooded cars to function perfectly once dried out; I would imagine it's related to the amount of current that flows through the circuits. A cars electrical system involves relatively high current obviously, especially the ignition system but all the same it should have survived, unless the engine ingested water.

It is conceivable that the engine was damaged internally water could have been ingested by the engine and compressed, minimum damage after water ingestion could be just bent valves. Worse case scenario could be a bent conrod. It is possible that they were conned by the garage they took it to, they are very limited in their understanding of anything related to technology.

I am 49 John [shut up Mutley!] so yes I do indeed remember the old style ignition systems. I spent many hours as a lad servicing my car, with the cap of the distributor removed, adjusting points. Got so fed up with the regular adjustments that in the end I whipped it out and fitted one of the first electronic modules from a company called Sparkright. Never did figure out why mankind was still utilising such archaic technology. As I fumbled with the wretched points I would find myself cursing the primitive contrivance, puzzled as to why the internal combustion engine hadn’t been assigned to the history books. Perhaps I read too much science fiction and was expecting electrogravitics, or some exotic technology shared by a visiting space-farer. :mrhappy:

Most pools here, ours included, are covered by what is locally referred to as a "lanai".

Glad to hear it John, I wouldn't want you to stroll across your patio one day in your swimming shorts, towel draped over your shoulder, only to be greeted by one of the alligators featured in the documentaries that are broadcast over here.

Please tell me you have been nibbled by an alligator, I'll be very disappointed if you haven’t. :-)

Maybe you can tell me - is there any real evidence that the weather with you is changing in respect of global warming? Ignoring the possibility of cycles in the weather, which haven't really been documented before, can you ascribe more hurricanes to our increasing green-house gas emissions?

Careful, I think John's brain has suffered 'green house gas overload' [A terrible disorder!] steam could be emitted from every orifice at any second. :yes:

[allardjd 1,853]

David,

I do remember post cards... When I was in the Navy our favorite variation of the standard greeting was, "Having a wonderful wish, time you were here."

We've only been in Florida for four years. That's far too short a time to be able to speak intelligently of observed climate change. This summer is the hottest we've seen. 2004 had the most hurricanes visit the area - we have not been affected by one since. This spring had more wildfires than any since 1998. They've agonized over drought in the dry season every year we've been here, but the summer rains always arrive on schedule in June and it's all forgotten. Who knows?

I think it's all too easy to attribute to global warming that which may only be normal variations and noise in the data. Weather and climate parameters are highly variable so large amounts of data over long periods are necessary to make any credible statements about change.

The weather authorities claim that hurricane activity follows approximately a 30 year cycle and that we're near the low end of an up-slope - having more each season will become more likely for the next ten years or so.

Martin,

Well, I've nibbled a gator; very tasty. Does that count? The nearest I've actually seen an alligator out of captivity was about 30 miles from here, though I'm sure they are around. From my reading, I've learned that any body of water over approximately one acre in Florida likely has at least one alligator in residence. We see reports on the news frequently of someone having to call the police and or animal control agencies to remove one that's gotten somewhere it shouldn't be. Attacks on humans are rare and usually the result of human stupidity. They were endangered at one point but now can be hunted with a special license and permit - expensive though - over $200 each. I'm not inclined toward that.

They are most often encountered toward the end of the dry season, when they go overland looking for water whenever their original pond dries up or gets too small. A neighbor claims one crossed her yard in late spring several years ago.

Alligators have about a 512 byte brain and are hardwired such that if you are smaller, you're perceived as food; if larger, as danger.

We did see a 5 foot Eastern Diamondback Rattlesnake about a quarter mile from the house a couple of years ago. That is a serious snake and can easily kill you if you give it half a chance.

As for greenhouse gas, my high levels are attributable to it being dissolved in my favorite beverages. And I'm not going to engage on global warming. We'll all be dead of old age and the argument will still be raging.

John

[MartinW 0]

:mrhappy: John you do disappoint me, I was expecting your garden to be infested with alligators rattlesnakes and all manor of exotic creatures.

Hear in the UK, I did see a squirrel recently!

Just kidding, actually I live opposite a large pond/lake. We do get some interesting wildlife, the obligatory Canada geese of course, woodpeckers, a heron and all varieties of insects with an fondness of water.

No alligators or rattlesnake though. :-)