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Malaysia airliner crashes in Ukraine


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Expect some conspiracy theories - TWA 800 crashed on the same date, supposedly shot down by a USN secret missile. The NTSB said a centre fuel tank explosion, but many still believe the rocket. Suprised no-one in the media has made the link yet

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After all the 'Sudetenland' parallels of this conflict, I'm now waiting for the first Lusitania one. Not that it will draw the US or NATO into direct military action, of course, but it may make calls for greater military assistance to Ukraine irresistible.

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First two-hundredth? Sounds like a hoax to me

 

And just because it was fired from the Russian separatists territory doesn't automatically make them responsible

 

The video was uploaded to the BBC website and I tried to find a YoutTube version to embed onto here.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28363169

 

 

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has released what they say are intercepted phone conversations that prove Flight MH17 plane was shot down by pro-Russian separatists.

The audio recording, published by the SBU to its YouTube account captures three separate conversations regarding the Malaysian airliner, which was reportedly downed in the eastern Ukrainian town of Hrabovo, north of Torez, on July 17.

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Unfortunately at this time I'm not trusting either the Ukrainians or the Russians to be accurate - they both want to blame each other as much as possible. If it can be independantly confirmed (especially not by the US, since they (amongst others) seem to be heading back to Cold War politics), then yes I would accept it

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The pro-Russian Ukrainians prevented access to the crash site by others for some time (still?) and the FDR is reported to already have been recovered and turned over to "Moscow". Haven't seen any mention of the CVR, but probably that too.

 

If it was a shoot-down and that's already known/acknowledged/conceded/agreed/stipulated to, then there's not likely to be much on either recorder that will be very helpful. You don't need the black boxes to tell you that a SAM hit is generally detrimental to controlled flight. That's what SAMs are for.

 

Ditto access to the wreckage, probably. It's generally agreed that it was a Russian-made BUK missile. The only needle in that haystack that might potentially be helpful would be anything that can identify the exact missile involved. That might be helpful in nailing down exactly who fired it, or maybe not. I suspect that the missile, if IDd, will turn out to be one received from Russia by Ukraine sometime in the past. Whether the rebels captured it and used it is the key point, and I suspect that two of the three parties involved are going to be mighty interested in muddying up the waters as much as possible.

 

John

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If they do find someone and prosecute them, maybe they can be imprisoned in Scotland for a few days for each fatality and then turned loose to go home on the head-of-state's private aircraft, to a hero's welcome.

 

Naah - that's too implausible to ever happen.

 

John

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If they do find someone and prosecute them, maybe they can be imprisoned in Scotland for a few days for each fatality and then turned loose to go home on the head-of-state's private aircraft, to a hero's welcome.

Naah - that's too implausible to ever happen.

John

 

John, regarding the release of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, you might be interested to read this.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-27298089

 

The gist of it is that many families of the Lockerbie victims, including their spokesman Dr. Jim Swire, are still seeking to overturn Megrahi's conviction, on the grounds that it was a miscarriage of justice. I watched an interview with Dr. Swire himself ( he lost his daughter Flora in the attack ) a few years ago, and he was quite adamant that the wrong man had been jailed. Has this aspect of the case received much coverage in the United States ?

 

Getting back to  MH17, I see the conspiracy theories are already forming like bathroom mold across the internet. My own view is, as ever, that 99.9% of what you see going on in the word actually IS as it appears to be. The Russians themselves would have had no reason to shoot the aircraft down, and the Ukrainians wouldn't have shot down an aircraft that was known to have entered their airspace from the west and was on the point of leaving it. That leaves pro-Russian rebels, who have been downing aircraft in that region, and are known to have captured high-altitude SAM systems in their inventory, but with no ability to positively identify an aircraft that high up before opening fire. 

 

As I say, 99.9% of what you see actually is as it appears - there are no conspiracies. To me, the simplest most logical answer is that the rebels made a terrible mistake.

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Has this aspect of the case received much coverage in the United States ?

 

 

Not all that much, though I am familiar with it.  

 

He was convicted and sentenced in a court of law, lost an appeal, abandoned a second appeal and then was let off the hook by the unilateral pronouncement of a political appointee, Kenny MacAskill, who,  "...granted his release on compassionate grounds, stating that Megrahi was in the final stages of terminal prostate cancer and was expected to die within three months."  Of course he didn't die within three months - he actually lived two years and nine months, no doubt due to the well-known world-class standards of medical care available in Libya before it all went south in the Arab Spring.  They only got it wrong by a factor if eleven.

 

I'm sure almost all convicted murderers die in prison, many of terminal diseases, without being given the consideration this guy was. 

 

...most logical answer is that the rebels made a terrible mistake.

 

 

Agree, not unlike the one made by the crew of the USS Vincennes in the Persian Gulf in 1988.  The difference is the cover-up going on in the current case.

 

John

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Unfortunately, the fact that he was convicted in a British court of law does not prove guilt, and my goodness we in Britain  know that - look at the miscarriages of justice here, such as the Guildford pub bombings, the Birmingham six, the Carl Bridgewater murder, and going right back to the Rillington Place murders that led to the suspension ( and subsequent abolition ) of the death penalty. As long as human error exists, then 12 humans can deliver the wrong verdict, and often do in the UK. I'm sure there are equally notorious cases across the pond.

 

But...I agree with you as well. From a legal standpoint, that conviction had not been successfully contested, and so there was no valid legal reason to release him. My sister lives in the USA, and she was witness to the fury that erupted over there. Not exactly our finest moment was it, John.  :(

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As long as human error exists, then 12 humans can deliver the wrong verdict...

 

 

 
Well, that's true enough, though in that particular case I believe that a panel of three Scottish judges (and one non-voting judge) convicted him, not a jury of his peers.
 
Nonetheless, in your system and in ours (which is based mostly on yours), whether tried by judge or jury, there is a tacit acknowledgement that humans make mistakes.  That's one of the reasons most of those sentenced to death here spend roughly 20 years on death row, playing out all sorts of appeals and challenges before the sentence is ultimately carried out.  Some of those appeals are successful and the system works most of the time.  There are a fair number of cases where persons convicted and sentenced to death have been exonerated or at least had their sentences reduced, commuted or otherwise lessened or vacated during that lenghty process.  Sadly, there have also been a few where innocent people have been wrongly executed. 
 
Like your system, ours is based on the presumption of innocence and the laws are based on the premise that we'd rather let ten guilty persons go free than convict one innocent one.  It works that way far more frequently than the other way - we see many obviously guilty people who escape conviction on a technicality or a violation of their rights during the arrest, arraignment and prosecution phases.  People get hot under the collar when that happens, but it's a basic tenet of the system and it's not inherently wrong.  
 
In spite of all that, occasionally an innocent person is convicted and sometimes - once in a very great while - an innocent person is executed.  It's regrettable - as regrettable as airliners full of innocent passengers dying unessecarily at the hands of terrorists or by military mistakes.
 
John
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Actually, he's off to Camp David for some rest and recreation. He's going on a 16 day vacation to Martha's Vineyard soon. Drawing all those red lines must be exhausting.

 

John

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