Irma

[allardjd 1,853]

Lets not turn this into an AGW thread, eh?

 

John

[MartinW 0]

1 hour ago, allardjd said:

The 1400 9/9 update has wind speed at 125 (down), movement still west at 9 (hasn't turned yet) and pressure at 940 mb (up).  Nothing there that's any more ominous than what we already knew.

 

John

 

 

 

What about the nuclear plants in Florida. I presume they will have a protocol in mind for such scenarios?  

[allardjd 1,853]

Quote

What about the nuclear plants in Florida. I presume they will have a protocol in mind for such scenarios?

 

Yes.  Andrew made landfall literally right on the Turkey Point plant, south of Miami in 1992 and though it did millions of dollars of damage, the plant was never in an unsafe mode.  One of the more dramatic casualties in that event was the collapse of an elevated water storage tank containing fire-fighting water. One of the biggest concerns was loss of communications with the NRC HQ in Bethesda, Maryland which caused a great deal of anxiety at NRC and which, technically, was a violation.  Since then, all US nuke plants have the capability for satellite phone communications with NRC and local and state emergency management authorities if necessary.

 

The only operating nuclear plants in Florida are Turkey Point and Port St. Lucie.  Both are on the east side, pretty far south and with the current track are not severely impacted.  There's a unit at Crystal River but it's been shut down for long term repairs and I'd expect that the core has been unloaded to the Spent Fuel Pit, where fuel geometry precludes a criticality.  The fuel element cells in the storage racks are too far apart - that and other measures preclude the fuel becoming critical.  Heat removal is still required but nuclear safety with respect to the Spent Fuel Pit is a good deal easier and less complex than for a core within a shut down RX.

 

Each plant has pre-established WX criteria which will, in certain conditions mandate shut down to at least Mode 3 (Hot Standby, i.e. at full temperature and pressure but rods in, RX Coolant borated to a safe shutdown margin and, obviously, RX not critical).  At some level of WX conditions or forecast, the site Emergency Plan might come into play too.  The Emergency plan has four levels beginning with an Unusual Event.  Other scenarios, whether WX related or not, such as loss of offsite power, might require cooling down to Mode 4 or Mode 5 (cold shutdown).  Offsite power is considered a very important safety criteria.  If the unit(s) are off-line and not able to supply their own house loads and offsite power is not available, then the local emergency diesels are the only means of powering safety-related pumps, instruments and controls and other equipment needed to maintain and monitor safe shutdown conditions. 

 

That's what the diesels are for, but becoming dependent on them is considered to be far up the path.  We had two diesels per unit; one is sufficient to supply the power needed to maintain safe shutdown conditions.  We had on-site fuel for about a week and contractually obligated, certified local suppliers with copious amounts of additional diesel fuel in elevated storage tanks (no need for electricity to fill tank trucks).

 

A precautionary shutdown to Mode 3 provides a strong level of safety but avoids a thermal cycle and reduces the time required for the plant to go critical and get back on line to supply needed post-disaster power.  A startup from Mode 5 requires 24 hours or more, depending on the plant and the state of the core.  Late in core life, Xenon may inhibit startup for as much as several days.  That's applicable even if the unit is held in Mode 3.  The Xenon captures neutrons and you cannot achieve criticality.  That's less of a problem with a fresh core.

 

John

 

[dodgy-alan 1,587]

1 hour ago, MartinW said:

 

 

Attributing a single weather event to climate change is tricky, but what we do know is that as the planet warms, the severity and frequency of weather events such as hurricanes will increase.  We do seem to have witnessed an increase in frequency and severity. The real "proof" or climate change of course is in terms of factors like the radioactive signature of the CO2 in the atmosphere, which matches the signature of the CO2 we emit.  Basic climate science, for example the "water vapour positive feedback loop" then tells us the degree of warming that we should be experiencing as a result of the CO2 we know we've put into the atmosphere. 

 

 

 

 

Not one single event of course but a whole string of them, and every year they seem to be getting worse.  Hurricane systems tend to develop off the west coast of Africa and pick up strength and power as well as a whole lot of water. They then travel NW across the Atlantic into the Caribbean area where the warm temps cause them to get even bigger. With the seas gradually warming up this combination of wind and water is becoming ever more powerful.  Having sailed through at least two Typhoons and a Hurricane, plus numerous storms in the past I can confirm that things are indeed becoming a lot worse. Although these are naturally occurring phenomenons, the rise in temperature  caused by Co2 etc is indeed having a detrimental effect on our safety and wellbeing. I am convinced that sometime in the near future, an even bigger catastrophe will happen and there will be major loss of life , and possible land mass. The various scientific bodies have been saying this for years but get shouted down by ignorant politicians etc that think they know better. Hopefully though by the time that happens i'll be beyond caring.

 

[MartinW 0]

51 minutes ago, allardjd said:

 

The only operating nuclear plants in Florida are Turkey Point and Port St. Lucie.

 

I recall Turkey Point is on high ground, so save from flooding.

 

So there will be quite a few personnel on site riding out the storm to monitor critical equipment?

[allardjd 1,853]

Quote

So there will be quite a few personnel on site riding out the storm to monitor critical equipment?

 

Yes, they'll assure adequate staffing - besides which, it's required.  At certain levels of the Emergency Plan various on-site and off-site emergency facilities are activated and manned.  One, the OSA (Operations Staging Area) is an on-site facility located away from the Control Room.  It is manned with Operations, Maintenance, Health Physics and other personnel and is tasked with providing additional people for various functions, as needed, including assessment, rescue & recovery, outside radiation monitoring (on-site and offsite), and operations tasks that need to be performed outside the Control Room, e.g. operation of manual valves, circuit breakers, etc.  Personnel from there can augment Control Room operators as necessary as the staffing includes a few licensed Reactor Operators.  All facilities are required to be staffed for long-term operation at any emergency level declaration that activates them.

 

I served as the Operations Staging Area manager at my plant for quite a number of years so am pretty familiar with that one specifically as well as the other facets of Emergency Plan operations.  We held drills often and if memory serves, one a year at least was observed, evaluated and graded by NRC personnel.

 

John

[mutley 4,498]

12 hours ago, allardjd said:

Lets not turn this into an AGW thread, eh?

 

John

 

+1 MH Forums are the wrong forums to be discussing climate change. 

 

 

[allardjd 1,853]

Overcast, breezy and steady light rain.  Supposed to see tropical storm force winds (> 39 mph) by nightfall.  Storm passage somewhere not far to the west of us forecast for about daybreak tomorrow.  

 

Tornado watch in effect.

 

John

[mutley 4,498]

Present warning in place for where John lives, active now until 01:30 UK time.

 

My thoughts are with all my friends and everyone in Marion County.

 

Quote

Alert:

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Ocala * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 55-75 mph with gusts to 95 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Monday afternoon - Window for Hurricane force winds: early Monday morning until Monday afternoon - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment. - Remain braced against the reasonable threat for major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher. - To be safe, efforts should fully focus on protecting life. Properties remain subject to devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. - Now is the time to urgently hide from the wind. Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of life, or immense human suffering. Remain sheltered until the hazardous wind subsides. Be ready to quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if extreme wind warnings are issued. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency considerations should include a threat of flooding. - Be safe and remain ready to protect against flooding rain impacts. - If flood related watches and warnings are in effect, heed recommended actions. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is favorable for tornadoes - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency considerations should include a reasonable threat for tornadoes. - Be safe and remain ready to protect against tornado impacts. Stay informed. - Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado approaches, quickly move to the safest place within your shelter. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://www.weather.gov/jax/

 

[mutley 4,498]

3 minutes ago, allardjd said:

Overcast, breezy and steady light rain.  Supposed to see tropical storm force winds (> 39 mph) by nightfall.  Storm passage somewhere not far to the west of us forecast for about daybreak tomorrow.  

 

Tornado watch in effect.

 

John

 

That sounds more reassuring than my post John!

[allardjd 1,853]

10 minutes ago, mutley said:

That sounds more reassuring than my post John!

 

Forecasts, official statements, etc. tend to be over the top, worst case, CYA affairs.  It's how politicians think.  They can't risk being seen as making light of it or understating it when judged after the fact.  Yes all of those things COULD happen and some of them will happen in some places, but I don't expect it to be all THAT bad here.  It will be dramatic and we may well have some property damage but I expect we'll be OK.

 

John

 

EDIT:

 

Power outages could begin any time and I expect that we will at some point lose power.  I'll try to provide updates from time to time but if I go silent it doesn't mean that we've been blown off to the land of Oz like Dorothy and Toto were.  

 

JDA

[hifly 925]

Not a day for a walk in the park then.

 

Stay safe John and all.

[Quickmarch 488]

28 minutes ago, allardjd said:

Overcast, breezy and steady light rain.  Supposed to see tropical storm force winds (> 39 mph) by nightfall.  Storm passage somewhere not far to the west of us forecast for about daybreak tomorrow.  

 

Tornado watch in effect.

 

John

 

Sorry to hear that, John, that puts you smack in the path of what sailors call "the most dangerous quadrant". The North East corner of a Northern Hemisphere hurricane.

Keep your powder dry 

[MartinW 0]

I was watching CNN and amidst the horrendous winds two crazy guys on bikes rode past. Bonkers some folks.

[allardjd 1,853]

The craziest of all are the Weather Channel reporters who feel they must stand out in the wind and rain in water up to their knees, microphone in hand, and report on how awful it is, telling everyone else how foolish they were to not evacuate.  They rushed INTO the storm for their fifteen minutes of fame but everyone else should have left.

 

John

[allardjd 1,853]

I think this guy has got it nailed.  Now where did I put the bazooka last time I cleaned it?

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article171702477.html

[mutley 4,498]

Now that's probably the most honest report we will ever read!

I love his report on his generator "It is the French labor union of generators." 

Typical!

[allardjd 1,853]

[mutley 4,498]

Wow, Naples and Fort Myers are copping it.

[allardjd 1,853]

42 minutes ago, mutley said:

Wow, Naples and Fort Myers are copping it.

 

They are, but it's an offshore wind at present.  It will come off the ocean as the center passes north, increasing the storm surge potential.

 

John

[allardjd 1,853]

Update - 0020 local:

 

Power still on and has been rock-solid so far despite reports of millions without power in Florida.

 

Rainy and gusty here but nothing too dramatic yet.  Worst will come in a few hours. 

 

Storm path has moved east again and the center is now expected to pass between Tampa and Orlando, dozens of miles east of us.  Storm has been over land and strength has steadily decreased.  Highest sustained winds now 100 mph but gusts significantly higher.  None of that too close to us yet.

 

Rain has been steady all day but nothing more than what I'd characterize as "moderate".  Ocala airport reported about a half hour ago winds at 23 (knots) gusting to 39.

 

John

 

 

[Quickmarch 488]

49 minutes ago, allardjd said:

Update - 0020 local:

clip

Storm path has moved east again and the center is now expected to pass between Tampa and Orlando, dozens of miles east of us.  Storm has been over land and strength has steadily decreased.  Highest sustained winds now 100 mph but gusts significantly higher.  None of that too close to us yet.

clip

John

 

That's good news, John.

Significant reduction in wind strength.

[allardjd 1,853]

One lesson from this, which I kind of suspected all along...

 

The authorities and experts, even when the storm is only a few hours away, speak with a level of certainty which, soon afterwards, turns out to be a) unwarranted, and b) invariably more pessimistic than the ultimate turn of events.

 

I should make this an addendum to Allard's Laws of Power Plant Maintenance.

 

I don't hold it against them that the progress of hurricanes is difficult in the extreme to predict.  I DO hold it against them that they don't let that fact affect the level of certainty they project when they attempt to make such predictions.  We should be grateful that we only get what we get, rather than what is predicted.  The latter would be far worse.

 

 

John

 

 

 

[allardjd 1,853]

http://nypost.com/2017/09/10/this-is-what-it-looks-like-with-every-flight-in-florida-grounded/

 

[mutley 4,498]

Well, that's a relief John, it's now sounding like a typical summers day in the UK.

Joe