Mubarak is Out

[IcedUpPitotTube 0]

Hosni Mubarak has stepped down!

"Hosni Mubarak of Egypt resigned his post and turned over all power to the military on Friday, ending his nearly 30 years of autocratic rule and bowing to a historic popular uprising that has transformed politics in Egypt and around the Arab world."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/world/middleeast/12egypt.html?_r=1&hp

[allardjd 1,853]

Very similar situation to 1979 Iran. We loved how that turned out, didn't we?

Probably the most significant differences are...

1 - Egypt is not oil-rich

2 - Saudi Arabia supported Mubarik (probably moot now)

3 - Egypt/Egyptians are Arabic, not Caucasian as the Iranians are - that will create a different climate for support from nearby countries.

4 - Tunisia has happened and others are ripe; Iran had no nearby parallels waiting in the wings to do the same

5 - Iran did not share a border with Israel

6 - Egypt uprising is not quite so stridently anti-American, anti-West as Iran was

7 - Islamic Fundamentalism, though certainly a factor and a concern, does not seem to be so much at the core of nor in the driver's seat as it was in the Iranian uprising. Watch this, however.

The Muslim Brotherhood is not to be taken lightly. Mohammed Al Baredai, though currently seen as the opposition leader, is weak, both politically and personally. He'll become a puppet in the hands of those who wish to control him, most likely the fundamentalists if they are given the chance.

Army control is not a bad thing if done carefully and if not protracted. It is to be hoped that the military authorities will quickly convene free and fair elections and that the constitution will be preserved and re-instated immediately following prompt elections.

If fundamentalists win and control the government, things will get ugly, most likely for Israel first.

I don't see long term closure of the Suez nor the establishment of a repressive climate for foreigners visiting Egypt. Without oil revenue they need the revenue that the Suez canal and tourism bring them. Even the mullahs, if they should come to political ascendency, will soon figure that out. You can't run the government of a nation of 75 million people without income.

Interesting times...

John

EDIT:

Other things to watch for.

1 - Egypt exerted some control over the tunnel-based smuggling into Gaza. They didn't stop it but they retarded it. It is likely that the Egyptian army will now have bigger fish to fry and may not be too concerned about what comes into Egypt and on into Gaza through the tunnels. They may even be more sympathetic to the Gaza smuggling now that the Mubarik government is not there giving orders.

If that occurs, look for Israel to take drastic measures to control it - another invasion of Gaza or other devastating, ongoing military operations to stop the tunnel traffic are not out of the question.

2 - US aid to Egypt, largely military, is on the rough scale of $1.2 billion per year. It is likely that military aid from here will be curtailed until it is assured that the new Egyptian government is no threat to Israel.

3 - Who will fill the military aid vacuum, if it comes to exist? Historically, Russia is at the top of the list. Other candidates include China, Iran, Syria (Iranian client).

France has some history in that part of the world and sometimes likes to put a thumb in the eye of the US, UK, NATO. That one's a long shot, but can't be ruled out.

North Korea is a dark horse at this point but they like to keep the pot boiling when things like this are going on.

South Africa - it's on their continent and they are a regional power. I wouldn't rule out them trying to have an influence on the outcome.

Libya? Well, it's right next door, and there's life in old Gadaffi yet. Who knows?

4 - Who's next in the region to be taken over by "the man in the street"? Jordan? Syria?

5 - Is it remotely possible that the old United Arab Republic could re-emerge in some form or fashion? Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon could form a political confederation of some kind. Lebanon will do whatever Damascus and Tehran tell them to anyway. This would be more likely if Syria and/or Jordan go the way of Egypt and if all were to come out essentially as theocracies, ala Iran - not impossible. That could bode ill for Israel.

JDA