Quickmarch 488 Posted July 6, 2017 Report Share Posted July 6, 2017 See: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amelia-earhart-may-have-survived-crash-landing-never-seen-photo-n779591 Link to post Share on other sites
brett 2,316 Posted July 6, 2017 Report Share Posted July 6, 2017 Ummmm, could be. Link to post Share on other sites
allardjd 1,853 Posted July 6, 2017 Report Share Posted July 6, 2017 Interesting, and plausible, though it's just a single photograph this is based upon. The Japanese were not above such things in those days, though the distance to the Marshalls from Howland Island, which was their intended destination for that leg, is a pretty long way. They'd have had to be FAR off course to have ended up there. The TIGHAR group has for years been trying to promote a theory that they landed on the reef flat at Gardner Island (now Nikumaroro) and survived as castaways for a while before succumbing there. If true, amongst the challenges they'd have faced was the fact that there's no source of fresh water on the island. The island is uninhabited now and was then, though there was a period of a few years when colonization was attempted not long after the time of her loss. There was also a US Coast Guard Loran station established, manned and operated there for a while after the war but that was also abandoned after a few years. TIGHAR make a plausible, fairly convincing but entirely circumstantial case with a lot of supporting artifacts and period documents. They mount an expedition from time to time, as funding can be generated, to go back and search for more. They do take a pretty logical, scientific approach to the project, even down to characterizing it as a "hypothesis", i.e. something postulated to be proven or disproven with evidence. If nothing else it's a good read. Their site for the project is here... http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/AEdescr.html Link to post Share on other sites
Tim_A 997 Posted July 6, 2017 Report Share Posted July 6, 2017 It's one of those things you'd need to get DNA from bones for it to be anything other than Yet Another In A Whole String Of Plausible Theories. Interesting one though. Link to post Share on other sites
brett 2,316 Posted July 6, 2017 Report Share Posted July 6, 2017 That is true Tim but it is a shame that is the norm nowadays to decide on a definitive outcome. I would be willing to settle for overwhelming evidence it they can come up with it although that might be difficult in conditions at sea. If they could not find their original destination it would take a good bit of luck to fall upon another island on the other side of the coin is whether they ran out of fuel both theories end in nature ravishing the remains. If this picture is true, the fact they don't look like prisoners could bring up many more questions but either way maybe it is in the interests of both countries to keep this situation hush hush for a long time to come. Link to post Share on other sites
dodgy-alan 1,587 Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Interesting possibility.would certainly start to draw the line under the story if it turns out to be genuine. Link to post Share on other sites
Captain Coffee 2,030 Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 Unless they were executed quickly in Japan/along the way..w/e...I doubt we would only be hearing about this now. If they were captives surely the Japanese would have tried to use them for some political leverage/bargaining, or at least used them as Accused Spies for PR effect. Also, it seems to me if they had lived in captivity for a significant time someone would have spilled the beans on a deathbed or to a relative/friend by now, and we'd be discussing the credibility of the sources rather than speculating that a skinny apparently paler person on a dock is caucasian let alone Amelia based on a very contrasty BW photo. If you really Want them to be Amelia and Frank...then you can find similarities...or you can search through hundreds of other photos of the day and see if you can find other random people who have physical characteristics that look like anyone else you want them to look like... I find this interesting, I hate to think that they crashed, but if they were kept in secret captivity by the Japan of that era, a crash might have been a better outcome. Link to post Share on other sites
allardjd 1,853 Posted July 7, 2017 Report Share Posted July 7, 2017 New info I've just seen... the Marshalls Islands photo was in a packet of other photos in an envelope in the National Archives and the envelope was annotated to indicate that the photos within were taken in 1940 or later, three years after Earhart/Noonan went missing. If that annotation is accurate that casts a lot of doubt on the premise that it's them and their aircraft in the photo. Bottom line is, for now, that none of the competing theories has a smoking gun. Pick your favorite. John 1 Link to post Share on other sites
allardjd 1,853 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Well, now there's a claim that the photo existed before the Earhart flight, contrary to what I'd read and posted above. This one sounds more credible because there's supposedly supporting evidence in the Japanese "national library", whatever that is. http://www.newser.com/story/245577/new-amelia-earhart-theory-might-be-crushed.html Blogger Might've Crushed Amelia Earhart Theory "...it took only minutes to find [the photo featured in the recent History documentary] in the archives of Japan's national library. In what may be the final nail in the coffin for the much-debated theory, Yamano says the same photo shown in the documentary was published in a travel book about the South Seas in October 1935—two years before Earhart vanished." John 3 Link to post Share on other sites
brett 2,316 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 Oh well, it was a cool theory anyway. Thanks for the heads up John. I still think they just crashed, whether close to an island or not they would not last long out there and any remains from the plane or them would simply disappear with time, the latter very quickly. Link to post Share on other sites
allardjd 1,853 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 I kind of favor the Nikumaroro/Gardner Island concept that TIGHAR is pushing but it's still entirely circumstantial - no proof, just some supporting things that are possible. One of those has been discredited recently. A piece of aluminum that was found there which didn't match any of the production parts of the Lockheed Electra was thought to be a remnant of a patch plate that was known to have been applied to the Earhart aircraft in Miami to cover over a custom, non-standard navigation window that was specified for the Earhart plane at the time it was built. There are at least two photos of the plane with the window covered over by an aluminum patch, for reasons unknown. A pretty solid engineering analysis has ruled that remnant out based on the rivet holes in the piece - the rivet hole pattern could not be made to match up to the underlying structural parts of the fuselage. John Link to post Share on other sites
brett 2,316 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 The TIGHAR group have come up with some great theories but at this point that's all they are. The question to beat all questions is what would you have done, your low on fuel, you have one of the best navigators in the business so you no you're close, you have only received garbled messages and the clouds are not playing nice... what would you do. Link to post Share on other sites
allardjd 1,853 Posted July 12, 2017 Report Share Posted July 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, brett said: ...what would you do. The documented radio message from her that they were, "...on the 157-337 line...", or words to that effect, is a plausible answer to your question, though not the only one. That line passes through both Howland Island, their intended destination, and if extended far enough south (157) also close to Gardner Island. If you believe you've reached the N-S line (more or less) upon which Howland lies, flying along it makes more sense than continuing eastward. I've read the navigational reason why the 157-337 line is used instead of a pure N-S line, something to do with a "sun line" that has to do with the navigational technology that was available to them at the time. I'm reminded again of the wisdom of Quickmarch who recommends a built in small biasing error so you'll know which way to turn when the clock runs out. Smart man! John 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Quickmarch 488 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 4 hours ago, allardjd said: I'm reminded again of the wisdom of Quickmarch who recommends a built in small biasing error so you'll know which way to turn when the clock runs out. Smart man! John Thanks JA. However, I cannot be credited with that wisdom. It was taught to me by a WWII navigator from the RAAF on a trip (by sea) from St.John (lovely name, don't you think?) in the Virgin Islands to Newport R.I., via Bermuda. This was way before the days of public access GPS. It was Bermuda we were aiming for. That's a much bigger island than Amelia was looking for. In any case, we (rather, "he") found it. Link to post Share on other sites
allardjd 1,853 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Another of Allard's Laws of Power Plant Maintenance... Never deny what you can take credit for. John 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Quickmarch 488 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 1 hour ago, allardjd said: Another of Allard's Laws of Power Plant Maintenance... Never deny what you can take credit for. John Link to post Share on other sites
allardjd 1,853 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Quote ...in the Virgin Islands to Newport R.I., via Bermuda. Ah, Newport. I spent a good part of two years there, home-ported on a USN repair ship and happened to be there for the America's Cup race during that time. Quite an event. Have visited Bermuda three times, two of them courtesy of the Navy. My dad spent some time in Bermuda during the war too. His ship, an LST, was in a convoy bound for the North Africa landings but was in a collision with another ship and had to divert to Bermuda for repairs. By the time they got to North Africa the main event was pretty much over. John Link to post Share on other sites
Quickmarch 488 Posted July 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Newport, during the skinny-boat era, was Utopia for sailors. Wonderful town! Link to post Share on other sites
Captain Coffee 2,030 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 (edited) 12 hours ago, allardjd said: Another of Allard's Laws of Power Plant Maintenance... Never deny what you can take credit for. John Very similar but inverse to a 'guideline' from The Big Coffee Table Book of Political Career Maintenance... Never take credit for what you can deny. Matt. Edited July 13, 2017 by Captain Coffee Link to post Share on other sites
brett 2,316 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 On 7/12/2017 at 18:25, allardjd said: The documented radio message from her that they were, "...on the 157-337 line...", or words to that effect, is a plausible answer to your question, though not the only one. That line passes through both Howland Island, their intended destination, and if extended far enough south (157) also close to Gardner Island. If you believe you've reached the N-S line (more or less) upon which Howland lies, flying along it makes more sense than continuing eastward. I've read the navigational reason why the 157-337 line is used instead of a pure N-S line, something to do with a "sun line" that has to do with the navigational technology that was available to them at the time. I'm reminded again of the wisdom of Quickmarch who recommends a built in small biasing error so you'll know which way to turn when the clock runs out. Smart man! John I think I would have tried to stick around the area that had a landing strip if I was low on fuel, maybe circle around since they had an idea of where they were. I just seams odd to fly the direction they think they did knowing what was around there. So many theories, I'm going with aliens. Link to post Share on other sites
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