A321 breaks up over Egypt, no survivors.

[dodgy-alan 1,587]

For those of who don't know, an Airbus A321 broke up in flight over Egypt yesterday, there are no survivors from the Russian owned airliner. debris is spread over 23sq km. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all those affected. May their families have swift closure to this tragic event.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11968554/Russian-plane-crash-everything-we-know-on-Sunday-afternoon-about-the-airliner-Isil-says-it-brought-down-on-Egypts-Sinai-Peninsula.html

[brett 2,315]

I just saw it in the news myself, horrible tragedy.

[hurricanemk1c 195]

A lot of coverage here, as the aircraft was Irish owned and registered

 

Sad to see

[MyPC8MyBrain 273]

tragic,

[wain 879]

very bad, been away all weekend but caught this on the news in a pub, tragic for everyone involved.....

[allardjd 1,853]

The boys at PPRUNE seem to be homing in on an in-flight breakup, somewhere aft of the wing.  Theories are, 1) aft pressure bulkhead catastrophic failure, possibly from a faulty repair following a tailstrike years ago, 2) some other structural failure/explosive decompression damaging controls and/or control surfaces, 3) on-board explosive device.  

 

Suggestions of a shoot-down are pretty much poo-pooed instantly with what seems to be pretty good rationale - too high for a MANPAD, and no possibility of any heavier AA weapons in the vicinity without being known/seen.  Both Egypt and Israel watch that area like a hawk.  The potential for the introduction of a bomb aboard is not so easy to discredit.  Supposedly, security at Sharm el Sheik is a Sham (or a Shame) and it's not a stretch that ISIS might not be too happy with Russia these days and that there might well be an airport worker or two at SeS with ISIS sympathies.  The only thing that doesn't fit is that the claim of credit did not follow the usual profile for a valid terrorist act being the cause - too late, too unprofessional and too unstrctured, but who knows?

 

AC has about 50,000 hours and had a D-check in Spain in 2014.

 

It appears that the AC came down in two major pieces, but a lot of debris scattered around a fairly wide area.   It's in a roughly 8 km X 4 km oval with some bodies several kilometers from the main wreckage, indicating an in-flight breakup.  Most of the wreckage indicates a low angle, relatively low speed, nearly vertical impact.  As of my last reading, about eight hours ago, the horizontal stabilizer has not been seen yet.

[MyPC8MyBrain 273]

for sure John,

over that area if that aircraft had made the slightest diversion from its route it would been shoot down without notice!

[allardjd 1,853]

Update from the 30 pages of PPRUNE posts so far...

 

Bomb theory is still very speculative but gaining some credibility, including some unexplained things in some of the photos, e.g. two dents in a small fire bottle on the forward side of the APU bulkhead.  That bulkhead is in an unpressurized area aft of the aft pressure bulkhead and acts as a firewall between the compartment where the empennage actuators (and the black/orange boxes, I believe) reside, and the APU compartment which is right aft.  It appears something impacted the bottle from forward with high energy, but did not penetrate - only dented it.  The bottle is only a small sphere, maybe 6" in diameter and looks pretty stout - it would take a lot to dent it.

 

There are also a series of small perforations/pock marks in a plastic shield on the upper, inner surface of door 4R, which is opposite the aft lavatory.  Those are random in size and pattern and could be from shrapnel impact.  Those look VERY suspicious and cannot be easily explained by impact with the ground or normal wear and tear.  Early photos show the door still in the frame and mostly closed but it was later removed at the crash site, probably for access.

 

It would not be fair to say there's broad acceptance of the bomb theory there yet - many are on the other side of that discussion, but it's beginning to look plausible, if not exactly probable.  

 

The operator has taken the unusual step of posting on-line all of the maintenance records for the aircraft, as if to say, "It wasn't our fault".  Oddly, there are a few pages missing.  The operator has also said publicly that the cause was external (I deliberately did not put that in quotes), however there is some controversy over the exact meaning, complicated further by the translation from Russian.  One school of thought is an "impact" from something external to the aircraft.  Another interpretation is that he simply meant external to the company, i.e. someone else's fault.

 

There's at least one statement that the reported 2014 D-check was really only a C-check.  Not sure about that one.

 

The prior tail strike event is factual and the aircraft was out of service for about three months for the repairs, over a decade ago - don't recall the exact year.   There is some speculation that the repair of the aft pressure bulkhead following that event may have been faulty and eventually failed.  There are at least two precedents for that, both 747s, I believe - one JAL and one a Chinese airliner.

 

There does not seem to be any intact piece of the aft fuselage, from the rear of the wing box to about the aft lavatory area.  If any of that exists in a large chunk it has not been found yet, or at least has not had photos published.  The conjecture at PPRUNE is that this section, by whatever mechanism, may have pretty much disintegrated.  Nose, wing, wing box, tail cone and aft section (sans the horizontal stabilizer) are all accounted for and are relatively intact.  There's a large section of fuselage that has just not been accounted for yet, at least not in the information known by the PPRUNE posters.

 

Yet another angle being discussed - there are a series of photos of this exact aircraft over the past several years in more than one livery with visible staining and paint deterioration at the base of the rudder, on both sides.  Comments from people who seem to know what they are talking about claim this is not typical of A321s and is indicative of chronic leakage of hydraulic fluid, which is known to be capable of causing softening and de-lamination of composite structures.  A catastrophic structural failure in that area would fit fairly well with what is known of the descent profile, impact evidence and debris distribution, but then, so would a bomb or an explosive failure of the aft pressure bulkhead.  Whatever the actual cause it's looking pretty certain that something catastrophic happened that severely affected the empennage.

 

It looks to me as if detailed examination of the various parts will eventually tell the tale, if the truth really gets out.  If there was a bomb; if the aft pressure bulkhead failed; if there was de-lamination of composite components in the tail - all should be forensically evident.  I think in this case, examination of the wreckage might tell more than the CVR and FDR will.  Those will only record the post-event behavior of the AC and crew, not necessarily the initiating event.

 

Egypt and Russia have the lead in the investigation. 

[stu7708 244]

Thanks for a comprehensive overview of what's on Pprune John.. I started looking through it yesterday but didn't have time to read all of it.
 
The tail strike incident happened back in 2001 according to AvHerald/ASN.
http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20011116-0
 
No mention of who did the repairs, but at the time the plane was operated by a Lebanese airline called Middle East Airlines. The company have their own service company, Mideast Aircraft Services Company (MASCO). Details of the service company according to Wikipedia.

 

Founded in 1955, MASCO is the only fully fledged aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul provider at Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport. MASCO is a part 145 EASA-approved MRO with full airframe check capabilities on the Airbus A300, A310, A320, and A330 family of aircraft. In addition, MASCO is certified to performing painting for all types of aircraft.

[Bruce (a.k.a. brian747) 142]

Many thanks for your excellent summary, John!

 

Cheers,

 

B.

 

[dodgy-alan 1,587]

If it turns out that it was a terrorist action, then you can bet the Russians will not take that without severe retaliation!  There special forces will be all over the area tracking the perps down. You should never upset a sleeping bear!

[Bruce (a.k.a. brian747) 142]

They've not been too sleepy in Ukraine, Alan....    

 

(Just saying...).    

 

Cheers,

 

B.

 

[MyPC8MyBrain 273]

the Russians may not have been the target at this point (just the mule); the flight was heading to Pittsburg USA!

 

i haven’t attended terrorist bomb building class; i was too busy at learning how throw rocks class,

judging by finals submitted over the years; it is not unlikely that this wasn’t a very well made bomb (if indeed there was one onboard)

 

also there’s the possibility if there was a bomb onboard coming through a confirmed inelegance; in that area there’s only one country with air dominance!

If there was an inelegance from any reliable direction; this could have been ordered and subcontracted to one country in that area that can pull something like this off,

There will be no negotiations is such situation; or acknowledgment from any sides; as this will soon get obfuscated with political smokescreen,

 

There could be a person of interest on board that flight we are not privy of; there could be many reasons,

One thing for sure; it is never what the media wants us to believe,

[J G 927]

the Russians may not have been the target at this point (just the mule); the flight was heading to Pittsburg USA!

 

 

 

Not Pittsburg I think, but St Petersburg, that is in Russia last time I looked.

[MyPC8MyBrain 273]

oops...

you are correct John (i skim read)

[allardjd 1,853]

Anyone with ISIS sympathies is not going to be very pleased with Russia these days.  They are doing everything they can to prop up Assad and keep him in power.  Their military actions have been directed against both ISIS and the non-ISIS anti-Assad rebels who were being modestly, minimally and ineffectively trained and supported by the US and it's allies.  

 

It's not implausible that ISIS or its sympathizers might want to do something like this.  Whether they could or did rises to another level.  Time and forensics will tell, though the Egyptian authorities may never admit it if terrorism is the cause.  Remember their adamant denial in the face of all evidence of the suicidal Egypt Air pilot's actions many years ago - they publicly rejected the official version of the accident investigation and deny to this day that the co-pilot deliberately initiated a dive and fought with another pilot who was trying to recover it.  That was under Mubarak's regime but I think the capacity for denial of that which might negatively affect the tourist trade is alive and well there.

 

John

[dodgy-alan 1,587]

The whole of the Middle East is imploding right now, I'm afraid it's the last place i'd want to take a holiday right now no matter how good it is. I got caught up in the 1980 Iran/Iraq conflict and that was bad enough,.....especially given the fact that BP was partly Iranian owned and someof their ships carried Iranian Flags and Names! .......including the one I was on! A week after I left her she was blown up by an Iraqi missile! The area has been a hot bed of trouble for many years sadly.

 

[MyPC8MyBrain 273]

sadly you’re right Alan,

that region been in turmoil for as long as history can recall,

not something we will get to see change in our life time

 

[J G 927]

Wow Alan, it looks like you had a narrow escape there!

[allardjd 1,853]

UPDATE: The PPRUNE thread is now at 48 pages and almost a thousand posts, not counting those that have been deleted - PPRUNE mods delete a lot of posts. I admit to being pretty mesmerized by this and have read or at least skimmed virtually all of it as it's developed.

There have been NO suggestions of pilot error. Most seem to think whatever happened was either structural or terrorism and was very, very sudden. PPRUNE posters are typically very slow to blame the pilots in most any event, but in this case I sure can't disagree.

 

The terrorism theory seems to be gaining some credibility there, not least because of some announcements by other governments suspending flights to/from the area, stating that terrorism is possible, etc. Having said that, there really hasn't been much in the photographic record to indicate that. The perforations in the 4R door panel seem to be the most damning ones and there hasn't been much discussion of that in the thread since right after the photo was posted. Anyway, despite not seeing much in the way of photographic evidence, I'd have to say that the terrorism angle is getting a little more credibility than earlier.

 

The Egyptian government spokesman has now said that the initiating event was an "engine explosion". This is the same guy who has said there's no evidence of an in-flight breakup. He must be Baghdad Bob's brother-in-law. His seeing-eye dog made no statements.

 

The engine photos seen so far don't seem to be indicative of any kind of un-contained engine failure. Cowling pieces seen are heavily damaged but most of it appears to be from ground impact - nothing that looks like penetrations from burst engine parts.

 

Tailcone, presumably with APU inside, came down in one piece (minus the extreme aft part containing muffler), cleanly separated at a bolted joint - four large bolts - the fittings torn out of the structure.

 

Autopsies/examinations of victims show severe burns (~ 90% of body) on those seated behind the wing. Bodies forward of the wing are not burned but are "penetrated" and dismembered.

 

Aircraft overnighted at Sharm and had an early morning departure. It was on the ground for over 12 hours.

 

Fuel tank explosions discussed but no one seems to find that credible as an initiating event, at least not spurious - if there was an explosive device near a fuel tank, that's another story.

 

One horizontal stabilizer has been seen in photos, almost completely intact, sheared from the HS box at the root in a fairly clean break. Longerons and stringers are hanging out the end but the damaged area is pretty localized. Photo was end-on from the butt end so hard to judge if there was other damage further outboard on the surface. There is no indication yet how far from the main wreckage that was found.

No identifiable photos yet seen of the other HS, the "box" that joined them or of the jack-screws and other actuator hardware.

 

Large piece of cabin roof and possibly the right side aft of the wing found but pretty much stripped off and peeled open. There seems to be a consensus that the left side is disintegrated and the right side and top are more in one piece but laid open to the point of being almost flat. Despite the forensic statements about bodies from that section being severely burned, there doesn't seem to be much in the way of burning evident on that piece of wreckage.

 

Vertical stabilizer base and about the lower half of the leading edge is in one piece, but the leading edge sheared a rivet joint at the base and is folded to the rear over the base section. Neither is heavily deformed. Impression is that those were connected and the rivet joint failed upon ground impact, allowing the leading edge to fall downward onto the top of the base section. No photos yet seen of the rudder or the upper section of the vertical stabilizer.

 

Early theories that the HS or possibly the entire tail came off in one piece as a sudden initiating event now seem to be a little more in doubt. From other events, it's known that in those cases a sudden, severe pitch down occurs and the wings sometimes fail downward in the airflow. The wreckage indicates that the wing was more or less intact when it reached the ground (inverted) so that kind of pitch event, if it happened, must not have been severe enough to fail the wing.

 

The earlier postulated post-repair failure of the rear pressure bulkhead is falling from favor. It's not clear that the tail strike repairs in 2001 even involved the RPB and even if they did, its failure is now not thought capable of causing such severe damage to the empennage - some, yes, as earlier events show, but the effects in this case are thought to exceed what could be expected. As for me, I'm not so sure. The operating mechanism for the HS is right aft of the RPB and if failure of the bulkhead caused a runaway HS, disconnected it from the actuator, severed the central HS box or something like that, who knows?

 

One guy from Russia is providing photos and translations of Russian media sources and his information has been very good. I'm surprised by how much detail has been available in the public media there.

 

Very troubling that Egypt is publishing such demonstrably ridiculous statements at this point, given that they are lead in the investigation. Conjecture is that Egypt wants it to be anything but terrorism. Airbus would be happier with terrorism than any kind of defect. Russia does not want it to be at the feet of the airline, either operationally or maintenance-induced. ISIS wants to be credited for the event, even if it was not them.

 

John

[MyPC8MyBrain 273]

John, any mentioning of the whereabouts of the black box; or any data from it?

also there's a contradiction I notice there from the data you're reporting,

If the fuselage was raptured no fire can hold at that altitude; there no oxygen to burn 90% of a body,

This suggest a sudden internal explosion so sever it split the airbus in half immediately,

[allardjd 1,853]

Both recorders found with damage, but no fire damage on them and the portions that contain the memory elements seem to be only lightly damaged. One source says that extracting usable data seems assured, however just plugging into the "local port" provided may not work.

 

There have been some "leaks" of information supposedly from the recorders, some credible, some not. One, for example, says all is normal on the CVR and there is one brief "abnormal sound" right at the end of the recorded data. That rings true to me - exactly what I'd expect as the event probably instantly severed the cockpit microphones connections to the recording device. The somewhat suspect allegation of an engine explosion is also alleged to have been leaked by someone who is close to the analysis of the data from the recorders but that one smells to high heaven.

 

It does seem credible that they already have recovered some or all of the data but can't yet have had much time for any kind of detailed analysis.

 

I think atomized fuel can burn at that altitude, and it's not clear at what point in the fall that the fire occurred. If you've ever seen video of a missile hit on a military aircraft at high altitude, it's almost always a fireball. Not disagreeing that an internal explosion rupturing the aft fuselage as an initiating event is possible - that may well be what happened.

 

John

[MyPC8MyBrain 273]

US intelligence says bomb was planted by Islamic State

[hurricanemk1c 195]

Something definately appears to have changed, with both the UK and Irish authorities (at least) advising airlines not to go to Sharm. Seems odd if they think it was mechanical and does add fuel to a terrorism scenario

[allardjd 1,853]

Now that there seems to be an international consensus, if not an official determination, that terrorism was probably behind the loss of the Russian A321 in the Sinai Desert, I thought I'd share what I consider to be the most damning piece of public domain information that I know of so far...

 

This photo is of door 4R which is opposite the aft lavatory. In the original as-found configuration it was still in it's frame, which is visible in the background behind it. The door was subsequently removed from the frame by the on-site investigators. The grey plastic plate circled in red is a trim piece or shroud on the upper, inner surface of the door (I incorrectly said in an earlier post that it was on the lower edge of the door - it's actually on the top). In my opinion, if that's not shrapnel damage, it's doing a pretty good imitation of it. See what you think...

 

http://clip2net.com/s/3pKFqm5