Germanwings A320 crash in French alps

[allardjd 1,853]

The Co-pilot could have well suffered a seizure of some form such as a Stroke that left him confused.

 

 

 

No.  He had to manually push the "Lock" button to inhibit the emergency entry code being used on the keypad to gain entry and had to do it more than once during the descent because the inhibition feature "times out", specifically designed into the mechanism in case of an incapacitated pilot locked inside.  If incapacitated, he could not have done that. What the prosecutor says, that he deliberately excluded the other pilot, is inescapable given the design of the system.

 

Also, there's little doubt that he manually initiated the descent for no good operational reason.  

 

Given those things and the accident of timing required for his stroke or other physical incapacitation to have occurred exactly during the couple of minutes the other pilot was out of the cockpit makes the whole idea of some medical situation a pretty far stretch.

 

Pretty much any postulated scenario other than what the official says will fly in the face of Occam's Razor.

 

John

 

 

[mutley 4,488]

In light of what we know so far, thanks to <enter deity here> he didn't aim this missile at a built up area.

[wain 879]

I think I agree with John with regards to if someone is intent on doing this there isnt much that can be done, especially if it is planned and they behave very calm...

Wayne

[The red barron 41]

 

 

The Co-pilot could have well suffered a seizure of some form such as a Stroke that left him confused.

 

 

John's right, he had to manually move the switch which is a three way toggle switch, which is normally just left of the parking brake (airlines can spec this to be on the overhead) The Lock setting has a five minute inhibit timer on it, so once Lock has been selected the only way in to the flight deck is if someone on the flight deck unlocks the door.  Even the 'Emergency procedure' way of getting doesn't work because the door was locked from the inside (this is so that if anyone gets the code from the cabin crew they still can't get in)  The decent was 8-10 minutes long, so the first officer must of re-selected Lock after five minutes, so that no one could get in.  It's also been confirmed that the F/O's breathing was normal from when the Captain left, until impact, if he had a medical issue, the change in breathing would have been picked up.

 

Having a second person on the flight deck is in my opinion the best way to go; which is the SOP in the USA (I've also seen this happen last time I was in the US) In fact I won't be surprised if this becomes law for airlines worldwide to adopt.  It is by far the cheapest and most logical way to go.

[allardjd 1,853]

Possible BS Alert - take this with a grain of salt so far - I'm seeing it on several sites but all point back to one report, in German, on "German PI-News".

 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

 

Headline: "The co-pilot of the Germanwings Airbus was a convert to Islam"

http://speisa.com/modules/articles/index.php/item.1086/the-co-pilot-of-the-germanwings-airbus-was-a-convert-to-islam.html
 

According to Michael Mannheimer, a writer for German PI-News, Germany now has its own 9/11, thanks to the convert to Islam, Andreas Lubitz.

Translation from German:

"All evidence indicates that the copilot of Airbus machine in his six-months break during his training as a pilot in Germanwings, converted to Islam and subsequently either by the order of "radical", ie. devout Muslims , or received the order from the book of terror, the Quran, on his own accord decided to carry out this mass murder. As a radical mosque in Bremen is in the center of the investigation, in which the convert was staying often, it can be assumed that he - as Mohammed Atta, in the attack against New York - received his instructions directly from the immediate vicinity of the mosque"

 

 

Maybe not a Lutheran after all...  We'll have to keep an eye on this and see whether it turns out to be true or not.  I'm not quite ready to swallow the hook yet.

 

John

[donnybalonny 46]

its a very sad story.

It must be very difficult for family and friends to digest what has happened.

 

Now the sensationalist newspapers and internet writers really have something horrible to write about.

 

The Spanish police is investigating the hundreds of twitter and facebook messages that right after the crash was known were saying things like this "ha ha, a plane full of Germans and Catalans... who care about those."

 

I agree with Mutley that the only point that gives us some kind of reliefe is that the maniac didn´t crash the AC in a densly populated area. Something that most terrorists would have done.

 

Personally, this one has affected me for days now. I know what loss is and its not an easy thing to live with. So all my best energys goes to those affected by the tragedy and this includes the copilots family and those living in his village.

[MartinW 0]

Maybe not a Lutheran after all... We'll have to keep an eye on this and see whether it turns out to be true or not. I'm not quite ready to swallow the hook yet.

I suggest you are right not to swallow the hook yet! Always consider the source.

The site is called PI... "politically incorrect", they declare themselves 'Islamaphobic and very proud of it". Something tells me they will explore any fictitious avenue they can to further their agenda.

Lets hope I'm right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politically_Incorrect_(blog)

What "may" be more relevant than a known islamophobic site, comes from the BBC...

Upon searching his home they found significant clues suggesting he suffered from "psychological illness".

Evidence he was heavily depressed.

The revelations by the German police come after officers searched Mr Lubitz's flat in Duesseldorf and the house the 27-year-old shared with his parents in Montabaur, north of Frankfurt, late on Thursday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32081681

[mutley 4,488]

Have they found the flight data recorder yet?

 

I was listening to a retired BA pilot this morning who said they would need the data from the FDR to turn a lot of the supposition into fact, but it looks as though it has gone missing. 

[britfrog 180]

[stu7708 244]

I totally agree with Martin on the credibility of PI-News as a source, they seem to have one sole agenda and like other such "sources" will not shy away from publishing pure fiction as fact to further their "cause".

 

The theory put forward by, in my mind, more credible sources regarding some sort of psychological illness seems more likely to me. Even more so when coupled with the reports that the co-pilot, during his training, was deemed "unfit to fly" during an 18 month period while undergoing treatment for depression.

 

@Joe: There were reports yesterday morning that the casing for the FDR had been found, but that the memory chips were missing. Although I think the investigators publicly denied that even the casing had been found last night.

 

There are however data published by Flightradar24.com that indicates that the autopilot was set to an altitude of 100 feet immediately prior to the plane started to descend. The data was derived from their collected data from the transponder. Apparently that data can, if local ATC so wants it too, contain data on the autopilot settings as well as location, actual altitude and speed. So it looks like the plane was flying on autopilot all the way down.

 

See more here: http://forum.flightradar24.com/threads/8650-We-have-analysed-the-raw-data-from-the-transponder-of-4U9525-and-found-some-more-dat?p=64616

 

 

[MartinW 0]

'Heavily depressive'

When Mr Lubitz finished training in 2009, he was diagnosed with a serious depressive episode and went on to receive treatment for a year and a half, the German news site Bild reports.

Internal documents quoted by Bild and German broadcaster ARD say a note on Mr Lubitz's aviation authority file recommended regular psychological assessment.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32081681

[dodgy-alan 1,587]

It certainly sounds like the poor guy was sufferring from severe depression. Whatever it was, his decision to end it all, and take 149 souls with him, is one highly selfish and irrational way to get a Darwin award.

[mutley 4,488]

I totally agree with Martin on the credibility of PI-News as a source, they seem to have one sole agenda and like other such "sources" will not shy away from publishing pure fiction as fact to further their "cause".

 

The theory put forward by, in my mind, more credible sources regarding some sort of psychological illness seems more likely to me. Even more so when coupled with the reports that the co-pilot, during his training, was deemed "unfit to fly" during an 18 month period while undergoing treatment for depression.

 

@Joe: There were reports yesterday morning that the casing for the FDR had been found, but that the memory chips were missing. Although I think the investigators publicly denied that even the casing had been found last night.

 

There are however data published by Flightradar24.com that indicates that the autopilot was set to an altitude of 100 feet immediately prior to the plane started to descend. The data was derived from their collected data from the transponder. Apparently that data can, if local ATC so wants it too, contain data on the autopilot settings as well as location, actual altitude and speed. So it looks like the plane was flying on autopilot all the way down.

 

See more here: http://forum.flightradar24.com/threads/8650-We-have-analysed-the-raw-data-from-the-transponder-of-4U9525-and-found-some-more-dat?p=64616

Nice link Micke, I learn something new every day!

[stu7708 244]

From AVHerald, and I've seen it mentioned on news sites too coupled with information that the reason for the mandated sick leave was depression....

 

On Mar 27th 2015 the States Attorney in Dusseldorf confirmed that the two homes of the first officer have been searched in order to find clues to the motives of the first officer. A medical certificate requiring sick leave has been found during those searches, the certificate was found torn, the first officer reported for the flight nonetheless.

 

 

[donnybalonny 46]

Bild..... hmmm

Is not where I would look for information in a case like this. Its a sensationalist newspaper with a poor ethic history and approach.

In cases like this one, its IMO best to stay quiet and wait untill official sources say something.

[allardjd 1,853]

One of the things that the FDR can provide is whether cabin pressure was normal or not.  There's still conjecture that hypoxia was in play at some level, partly disabling the guy in the cockpit and causing him to be confused and possibly locking the captain out by accident.  No cabin pressure warning was heard on the CVR but the FDR will reveal beyond all doubt if the cabin pressure was OK or not.

 

Micke is correct about the AP altitude select setting being known already.  That is among the things transmitted by the Mode S transponder and indicates that he manually dialed it down from 38,000' to 100', the minimum possible setting, in a 3-second period.  The transponder captured one intermediate point, just by an accident of the sampling rate.  The control is a knob with detents, not a keypad, and the clicking can be heard on the CVR audio.  There is an adjacent control that permits each click to be 100' or 1,000'.  Setting at 1,000' is normal but I have not heard which it was in. If he could go that far in three seconds, probably in the 1,000' per click mode.

 

John

[mike H 456]

Q.  I thought  when the auto pilot was on and set to 38000 ft and you then selected 100ft and leave the auto pilot on, when the aircraft reaches a point where you hear " terrain terrain " I thought that the auto pilot would have automatically put the aircraft into a climb at that point.

If  auto pilots do not do that then maybe they should, as this may have helped to stop this accident happening.

 

Mike

[allardjd 1,853]

I thought that the auto pilot would have automatically put the aircraft into a climb at that point.

If auto pilots do not do that then maybe they should, as this may have helped to stop this accident happening.

 

 

Not an accident - homicide by intentional acts.

 

I don't know if the AB does an automatic pull-up or not, but that's why they have pilots in the cockpit in the first place.  I don't think it should be necessary for the avionics to be designed with the idea that the pilot is alone and suicidal/homicidal.  If there had been an automatic pull-up, this guy would obviously have defeated that too.  It appears to me that the fate of everyone aboard was sealed when the cockpit door clicked shut behind the Captain as he was leaving.

 

I still contend that if one pilot is intent on crashing the plane, he can, even if he's not alone.

 

John

[mike H 456]

Thanks John for the info. I agree with everything you said.

 

The use of accident in my post was the wrong word to use I apologise to all for using it.

 

Mike

[allardjd 1,853]

No apologies necessary, Mike.  This whole thing is a seriously upsetting event.  I wonder how this is going to change things for the flying public in the future.  Not for the better, I'd guess.

 

John

[Captain Coffee 2,030]

Personally, it will boost my enthusiasm for using rail travel when possible domestically, and curb my enthusiasm for international travel till I can sail there on my own boat

[allardjd 1,853]

Rail travel not much of an option.  We have to make a 1,000 mile + (each way) trip a couple of months from now and checked out Amtrack.  By rail it is Jacksonville to Washington DC, to Chicago to Denver - 3 days + long (~12 hour layovers between trains).  Cost is higher than air travel.  Train stations are mostly not nice places in not nice parts of the towns they are in.  I'll risk the suicidal pilot - it doesn't happen very often.

 

In reality, if you as a passenger decided you wanted to commit suicide by continuously travelling on scheduled pax airlines in the western world, you could rack up a hell of a lot of miles before you died, unless of course you said the wrong thing to a flight attendant.  I guess you could increase the odds of dying by travelling by air in certain parts of Africa or Asia, but even there, probably not a high probability of something fatal happening unless you tempt fate too often, are caught drawing pictures of Mohammed, or are just plain unlucky.

 

John

[brett 2,286]

Do your odds improve if you fly with Brian?

[allardjd 1,853]

Do your odds improve if you fly with Brian? 

 

 

Well, he's survived every flight so far...

 

John

[dodgy-alan 1,587]

Latest reports say they have found lots of different DNA strands, but no recognizable body parts. There will be no individual funerals as not enough found to be viable. I'm guessing it will be a mass grave of all parts that they are able to recover. Looking at the time the remains have been there now you can bet that some parts have been predated by the local wildlife already.